Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Ratio Signals Late November Plunge May Have Been a Bottom
Extreme readings in the ratio of short-term holder supply in profit versus short-term holder supply in loss have historically aligned with the end of Bitcoin bear markets.
When Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to nearly $80,000 in late November, this ratio fell to levels that have previously coincided with major or local market bottoms. On Nov. 24, the ratio hit 0.013 — a level that in the past marked either local lows or definitive bear market bottoms, including in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022, according to Glassnode data.
Glassnode defines short-term holders as investors who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days. At the November trough, the seven-day moving average of short-term holder supply in profit fell to roughly 30,000 BTC, while supply in loss surged to 2.45 million BTC, the highest level since the FTX collapse in November 2022, when Bitcoin bottomed near $15,000.
Since the start of 2026, Bitcoin has rallied to around $94,000, a gain of more than 7%. Over this period, short-term holder supply in loss has declined to 1.9 million BTC, while supply in profit rebounded to 850,000 BTC, bringing the ratio to approximately 0.45.
Historically, when this ratio approaches 1, it often continues rising, signaling a sustained price upside. With the current ratio still below 0.5, the metric indicates significant room for further expansion before reaching equilibrium. Conversely, Bitcoin tops have historically occurred only when the ratio rises toward 100.
