Bitcoin Momentum Builds Toward $135K as ETF Flows and Macro Risks Support Rally
Bitcoin (BTC) has surged approximately 13% this week, reaching $124,951 on Friday and approaching its previous all-time high near $124,500. Analysts at Standard Chartered see the potential for a near-term move to $135,000, with a year-end target of $200,000.
ETF Inflows Provide Tailwind
According to Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, ETF investors may rotate capital from gold to Bitcoin. While gold ETFs have recently outperformed, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are expected to accelerate. Of the $58 billion in net BTC ETF inflows, $23 billion has arrived in 2025 alone, including more than $2.25 billion this week (excluding Friday). Kendrick anticipates an additional $20 billion in ETF inflows by year-end, bolstering the bullish outlook.
Government Shutdown Driving Market Sentiment
Kendrick also highlighted the impact of the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which is influencing markets more than prior shutdowns. Unlike the 2018–2019 episode, Bitcoin is now closely correlated with U.S. government risk, measured via Treasury term premiums. This connection suggests that current uncertainty is acting as a bullish catalyst for BTC.
Prediction markets on Polymarket assign a 60% probability that the shutdown lasts 10–29 days, during which Kendrick expects Bitcoin to continue its upward trajectory.
Technical Outlook
With BTC approaching previous all-time highs, a short-term target of $135,000 appears achievable. Combined with ETF inflows and macro-driven market factors, Bitcoin’s momentum could carry it toward the $200,000 year-end forecast.
