As the final quarter of 2025 begins, crypto traders are turning to charts and technical indicators to assess potential market direction. Historical patterns, moving averages, cross-asset signals, and equity trends all provide context for navigating this volatile period.
Seasonal Tailwinds for BTC and ETH
Historically, Q4 has been the strongest period of the year for Bitcoin and Ether. Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged an 85% gain in the last quarter, with November (+46%) and October (+21%) standing out, according to Coinglass.
Ether also tends to perform well in Q4, though its largest historical gains occur in Q1. With BTC near $109,418 and ETH around $4,022, seasonal trends may support bulls despite short-term price pressures.
Bitcoin Support Levels to Watch
Bitcoin has slipped 5% this week, testing late-August lows near $107,300. If broken, the 200-day SMA at $104,200 becomes the next key level.
The 50-week SMA, now at $98,900, has historically acted as strong support during corrections in the ongoing bull cycle that began in early 2023. Traders will monitor this level closely as a gauge for broader market stability.
XRP/BTC: Compression Suggests Potential Breakout
XRP has risen 32% this year but remains range-bound against Bitcoin, with the XRP/BTC pair stuck in a tight channel since early 2021.
Recent price action near the upper range boundary indicates bulls are gaining traction. A decisive breakout could trigger a strong relative rally for XRP as years of low-volatility compression release accumulated energy.
SMST ETF: Signals Possible BTC and MSTR Weakness
The Defiance Daily Target 2x Short MSTR ETF (SMST) reached a five-month high of $35.65, forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern — typically a bullish reversal for the ETF.
Since SMST moves inversely to MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock, which holds 639,835 BTC, the ETF’s rally may indicate further downside pressure for both MSTR and Bitcoin if momentum continues.
Dollar Index: Double Bottom in Focus
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) formed a double bottom around 96.30. A move above 100.26 would confirm a breakout, potentially targeting 104.00 and placing headwinds on risk assets, including crypto.
Conversely, a drop below 96.00 could encourage renewed risk-taking, making these levels crucial for traders to monitor.
Nvidia: Risk Appetite Barometer
Nvidia (NVDA), a bellwether for global risk assets, remains near the upper boundary of a broadening channel traced from mid-2024 to April 2025. The rally has stalled since late July, signaling potential bullish exhaustion.
A reversal could mark the start of a risk-off period, likely affecting cryptocurrencies as investors reassess exposure to risk assets.
