A forthcoming exposé from on-chain investigator ZachXBT has ignited a wave of speculative trading on Polymarket, where users have staked nearly $3 million on which crypto company could be accused of insider trading.
The betting frenzy began after ZachXBT posted on X that he would publish a “major investigation” on February 26 involving one of the industry’s most profitable firms. He did not identify the company, but the allegation of insider trading alone was enough to set prediction markets in motion.
Polymarket allows participants to trade outcome-based contracts with real money, meaning odds reflect capital-backed conviction rather than casual speculation. Since gaining mainstream attention during the 2024 U.S. election cycle, the platform has increasingly served as crypto’s informal sentiment tracker for unresolved events.
As of Tuesday morning in Asia, Meteora has emerged as the clear favorite, commanding 43% odds with approximately $319,000 wagered on that outcome. The Solana-based liquidity protocol has frequently appeared in community debates about meme coin launch dynamics, particularly around liquidity provisioning and early price advantages. The project did not immediately respond to media inquiries.
Axiom trails at 13%, followed by Pump.fun at 12%. Pump.fun, however, has drawn the largest single-outcome volume at roughly $332,000, suggesting significant two-sided positioning. The platform has previously denied claims of insider advantages linked to early wallet activity.
Further down the list, Jupiter holds 8%, reflecting ongoing scrutiny around DeFi routing and fee capture on Solana. MEXC stands at 7%, amid persistent social media chatter regarding listing practices and trading behavior in meme coin markets.
Market pricing has shifted notably since the contract opened. Axiom, Pump.fun, and Jupiter have each seen their implied probabilities drop between 37% and 42%, while Meteora has strengthened its lead. The evolution suggests early broad speculation has narrowed into more concentrated conviction as traders analyze ZachXBT’s investigative history and recent posts for hints.
Still, prediction markets measure sentiment, not evidence. The odds reflect aggregated trader expectations rather than confirmed knowledge of the upcoming report.
For now, the episode highlights how quickly rumors can be financialized in crypto — with platforms like Polymarket transforming speculation into measurable market risk.
