Oppenheimer Analyst Warns Retail Pullback Due to Tariff Concerns Will Affect Coinbase’s Revenue Through 2025
Coinbase (COIN) is facing a challenging outlook, as the ongoing uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s fluctuating tariff threats has dampened retail crypto activity, according to analysts at Oppenheimer.
The investment bank revised its trading volume forecast for the full year, cutting it by 19% to $1.3 trillion. It also lowered its first-quarter estimate to $380 billion, down 13% from the previous quarter, citing a general decline in risk appetite among investors.
Despite a more crypto-friendly stance from Washington—marked by signals of support from the White House, Congress, and regulators—the analysts argue that the market has yet to fully absorb these positive signals.
“Since the election, we’ve seen the most pro-crypto administration in U.S. history, with policies, executive orders, and SEC statements all indicating that the U.S. is open for blockchain businesses,” analyst Owen Lau wrote. “However, during the transition, it’s unfortunate to see that Trump’s on-and-off tariff threats have sparked bear market fears, recession concerns, and a retreat in retail trading.”
Coinbase shares have dropped by 30% this year, underperforming both Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500, which have declined by 10% and 8%, respectively. While this represents a rebound from 2022—when COIN fell by 86%—it still highlights the platform’s sensitivity to broader macroeconomic shifts.
Oppenheimer also reduced its revenue and earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026, lowering its price target for Coinbase’s stock to $279 from $388. The bank cited retail participation remaining subdued due to ongoing policy uncertainty. Despite this, Oppenheimer maintained an “outperform” rating on the stock, which fell by 1.2% to $173.39 on Wednesday.
One positive takeaway for Coinbase is its market share. In February, Coinbase accounted for 69% of U.S. spot crypto trading volume, outpacing competitors like Robinhood (HOOD). Maintaining this lead will depend on whether the market can shake off tariff concerns and regain momentum.
While acknowledging the near-term challenges, Oppenheimer remains optimistic about Coinbase’s long-term prospects.
“As a leading player in crypto with potential in tokenization and payments, we believe Coinbase can command a premium. In our view, it is a strong rebound stock if and when tariff tensions ease,” Lau concluded.
