Polymarket Bettors Predict Shareholders Will Reject Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Proposal for Microsoft
Polymarket bettors are forecasting that Michael Saylor’s proposal to Microsoft’s board, which suggests adding Bitcoin to the company’s balance sheet, is unlikely to win shareholder approval. Bettors are assigning only an 11% chance of the proposal passing, according to current predictions on the platform.
On Polymarket, bettors place wagers on outcomes with a “Yes” or “No” option, where a successful prediction earns $1 in USDC (a stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar), while an incorrect prediction results in no payout.
The proposal, which was first pushed forward by the National Center for Public Policy Research in October, recommended that Microsoft diversify its investment portfolio by acquiring Bitcoin. However, the company’s board has advised shareholders to vote against the motion, citing concerns about the volatility of cryptocurrency and its unsuitability for a company the size of Microsoft.
Saylor, who is the executive chairman of MicroStrategy (MSTR), which has seen its stock soar 455% this year, recently pitched the idea to Microsoft’s board. He argued that adding Bitcoin to Microsoft’s balance sheet could act as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, potentially increasing the company’s $3.2 trillion market cap to more than $8 trillion.
Saylor has also criticized Microsoft’s current treasury strategy, claiming that the company has “surrendered” $200 billion in capital over the past five years through dividends and buybacks—funds he believes could have been better spent on Bitcoin, which has risen over 1,200% in that time.
One Polymarket bettor, holding a position on the “No” side with a $2,000 bet, argued that there is little reason for institutional investors to want Microsoft to add Bitcoin to its balance sheet. According to this bettor, Bitcoin exposure is already available through various other investment options, and adding Bitcoin would complicate Microsoft’s investment profile.
“They’re just making their value assessment more difficult by muddying up safe investments (MSFT) with volatile ones (BTC),” wrote the trader, who goes by Oxymirin.
On the other hand, a bettor taking the “Yes” side, who goes by the handle titanlin, suggested that while the proposal may not result in a large Bitcoin purchase, Microsoft’s solid cash position could allow for a small allocation to Bitcoin as a test.
“I think a small amount of funds will be allocated for testing. After all, shareholders’ rights must be taken into consideration. Microsoft’s cash position is sufficient. Microsoft offers some options for buying Bitcoin,” titanlin wrote.
Microsoft’s next shareholder meeting is scheduled for December 10, where the proposal will be put to a vote.
