Bitcoin shows stronger post-crisis gains than gold and stocks, Mercado Bitcoin study says
Bitcoin has repeatedly outperformed traditional safe-haven assets and equities in the wake of major global disruptions, according to a new study from Brazilian crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin.
The analysis, led by head of research Rony Szuster, reviewed 60-day periods following key economic and geopolitical shocks, including the COVID-19 outbreak and U.S. tariff escalations. Across all cases studied, Bitcoin delivered higher returns than both gold and the S&P 500.
One example highlighted came after the announcement of sweeping U.S. tariffs in April last year. In the following two months, Bitcoin rose 24%, compared with an 8% increase in gold and a 4% gain in the S&P 500.
A similar pattern was observed during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, when Bitcoin climbed 21% over the next 60 days, again outpacing traditional assets.
Szuster noted that market behavior immediately after a shock can be misleading. Investors often sell assets to raise cash or reduce risk, which can temporarily push prices lower—even for defensive assets.
However, the study found that Bitcoin has consistently recovered from these initial sell-offs and gone on to outperform during the recovery phase.
This trend appears to be playing out once again amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions. According to Szuster, Bitcoin is currently the only one among the three assets trading in positive territory during the latest period of uncertainty.
Since the conflict began, Bitcoin has gained more than 2.2%, rising from around $65,800 to roughly $67,300. Meanwhile, gold has fallen about 11%, and the S&P 500 has dropped 4.4%, marking its sharpest monthly decline since 2022.
Despite its volatility, Szuster emphasized that Bitcoin remains the best-performing asset of the past decade, underscoring its growing role in modern investment portfolios.
