As the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report approaches, crypto markets are bracing for potential swings. Implied volatility suggests moderate movement in major tokens, while XRP and Solana (SOL) may see larger fluctuations.
- Bitcoin (BTC) one-day implied volatility is 43.8, indicating an expected 24-hour price swing of 2.29%.
- Ether (ETH) shows 3.7%, XRP 4%, and SOL 4.86%, reflecting heightened sensitivity in mid-cap coins.
Analysts caution that stronger-than-expected payrolls could reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts, pressuring risk assets.
Derivatives and Options
- ETH open interest in USDT and USD perpetual contracts fell to 1.93M ETH, a four-week low.
- SOL perpetuals dropped below 11M SOL, putting the recent uptrend at risk.
- CME BTC futures activity remains subdued, but options open interest surged to 47.23K BTC ($5.21B), the highest since November, with traders favoring out-of-the-money puts as protection against potential downside.
- BTC puts on Deribit continue trading at a premium to calls, signaling bearish sentiment.
Memecoin Momentum
After earlier memecoin hype faded, MemeCore, a DeFi-focused platform, gained 261% in the past week. Most trading occurred on PancakeSwap, highlighting strong retail activity. This renewed interest may spill over to Solana-based memecoins like Pump.fun, whose daily revenues have dropped from $15.8M in January to $1.5–$2.5M this week.
