Next week could be a decisive period for global markets — including Bitcoin — as seven major central banks deliver interest-rate decisions while surging oil prices raise fresh concerns about inflation.
The busy policy calendar begins with the rate announcement from the Reserve Bank of Australia on March 17. Decisions from the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve follow on March 18. The week concludes on March 19 with policy updates from the Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank, Bank of England and the European Central Bank.
Until recently, investors widely expected most major central banks — particularly the Fed — to begin cutting rates or at least avoid tightening policy this year. Optimism around artificial intelligence and its potential to reduce costs and reshape labor markets had strengthened the view that inflation would gradually ease, supporting risk assets such as bitcoin.
However, geopolitical tensions have complicated that outlook.
A conflict that began on Feb. 28 with coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran has escalated into broader retaliation across the region, disrupting energy shipments through the Middle East and driving oil prices higher.
The surge in crude prices has revived concerns about global inflation, prompting traders to reconsider expectations for interest-rate cuts. Some now fear central banks may be forced to keep borrowing costs elevated or even adopt a more hawkish stance.
If policymakers signal a tougher approach to inflation during next week’s meetings, risk assets — including bitcoin — could face renewed volatility. Central bankers may also be wary of repeating the policy misstep of 2021–22, when inflation was initially labeled temporary before surging across major economies.
At the same time, a more cautious or data-dependent tone could provide relief for markets. If policymakers downplay inflation risks or emphasize a wait-and-see approach, risk assets could benefit.
Ethan Harris, an economist and long-time Federal Reserve watcher, noted that policymakers often respond cautiously to energy-driven inflation shocks.
“Like all supply shocks, the first Fed response to an oil price spike is to watch and assess the damage,” Harris wrote in a LinkedIn post.
He explained that oil shocks tend to slow economic growth while simultaneously pushing inflation higher, making policy responses more complicated.
“Before moving, the Fed wants to determine which risk is larger,” Harris said, adding that many oil shocks are temporary. “The Fed doesn’t want to adjust rates only to reverse the decision weeks later.”
Historically, policy decisions from the Federal Reserve — and at times the Bank of Japan — have had the most significant influence on bitcoin’s price.
With rising energy costs already straining households and businesses across Japan, the Bank of Japan’s policy decision next Friday could prove particularly important for both domestic markets and bitcoin.
