Gold and silver continued their January rally on Thursday, moving closer to key price milestones, while bitcoin (BTC $88,558) remained range-bound near $90,000.
Spot gold gained about 2.5% to trade near $4,950 per ounce, and silver surged more than 6% to just under $99. The moves cap a strong month for precious metals, with gold up over 7% and silver soaring nearly 30%, far outpacing most major asset classes.
Prediction markets suggest traders see these levels as stepping stones rather than ceilings. On Polymarket, contracts on whether gold or ethereum reaches $5,000 first assign gold a 97% probability, with ETH still below $3,000. Month-end markets also favor gold above $5,000 and silver surpassing $85, with significant bets on a $100 move.
Analysts are increasingly bullish. Goldman Sachs recently raised its year-end 2026 gold forecast to $5,400 per ounce from $4,900. Bitcoin, by contrast, is expected to remain range-bound near $85,000 through January.
Volatility trends highlight the divergence: silver’s 30-day realized volatility has jumped into the high 60s, signaling strong momentum, while gold’s remains steady in the low 20s. Bitcoin’s volatility has compressed into the mid-30s despite prices near recent highs, reflecting a shift in how markets are expressing macro uncertainty.
