Bitcoin’s onchain signals continue to point to supply pressure and weak participation, even as markets increasingly view gold’s climb above $5,000 as a lasting macro shift rather than a fleeting surge.
Gold pushed to new highs in early Asian trading, while bitcoin remained stuck near $87,000, reflecting a crypto market mired in low-conviction trading and constrained by internal supply dynamics. The divergence between the two assets appears rooted in market structure, not a sudden change in risk appetite.
CryptoQuant data show bitcoin holders have begun selling at a loss for the first time since October 2023. Longer-term investors are trimming positions as newer buyers absorb supply — a pattern that has historically coincided with consolidation phases rather than the start of a fresh rally.
Glassnode points to persistent overhead supply as the key drag on price action. Bitcoin continues to struggle below short-term holder cost bases around $98,000, while a dense band of supply above $100,000 is likely to cap rallies in the near term.
Recent rebounds have prompted breakeven selling and loss-driven exits from investors who accumulated near the 2025 highs, reinforcing resistance and keeping upside momentum fragile.
Derivatives activity and prediction markets echo the same message. Futures volumes remain compressed, leverage deployment is subdued, and recent price moves have occurred in relatively thin liquidity. On Polymarket, traders are assigning higher odds to gold holding above $5,500 through mid-year, while increasingly positioning for continued bitcoin consolidation.
For now, gold is absorbing macro stress, while bitcoin remains in digestion mode, working through internal supply imbalances rather than responding to external catalysts.
Market snapshot
- BTC: Bitcoin is trading near $87,000, with overhead supply, thin participation, and muted leverage leaving rallies vulnerable to renewed selling.
- ETH: Ether continues to underperform bitcoin, reflecting weak demand, subdued derivatives activity, and little evidence of rotation into higher-beta crypto assets.
- Gold: Gold surged to a fresh record above $5,000 an ounce, supported by geopolitical risk, sustained central-bank buying, and a softer U.S. dollar.
- Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei edged lower as Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed, with yen strength weighing on equities amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.
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