A developing U.S.–China trade agreement could provide the spark for Bitcoin’s next leg higher, according to crypto derivatives exchange Deribit, as traders regain confidence following this month’s volatility.
Markets are focused on the upcoming meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, seen as a potential turning point after weeks of escalating trade tension. Earlier in October, Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods starting Nov. 1 in retaliation for China’s tighter controls on rare-earth mineral exports, triggering a sharp sell-off in global and digital asset markets.
Trump has since signaled optimism about reaching a deal, raising hopes that easing geopolitical strain could lift risk sentiment across asset classes, including crypto.
Data tracked by Amberdata show signs of stabilization in options markets. The volatility premium on downside puts versus calls in Deribit-listed BTC options has narrowed to 2–3%, down from roughly 5% following the Oct. 10 crash. The decline reflects a reduction in demand for protective hedges as volatility normalizes.
Still, trading flows remain cautious, with investors favoring put longs, put spreads, and call overwriting — strategies that signal lingering hesitation despite improving tone.
After plunging from $126,000 to near $105,000 earlier this month, Bitcoin has rebounded to about $114,000, according to CoinDesk data.
Deribit analysts said that a credible trade deal announcement or policy framework from the Trump–Xi summit could restore bullish momentum, potentially reviving broader risk appetite across crypto markets if macro conditions stabilize further.
