Bitcoin slipped overnight, pulling the broader crypto market lower as traders remained cautious amid limited market catalysts. BTC traded at $88,248.23, down 1.5% from early Wednesday highs, while the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index fell 1.6%, with all constituent tokens in the red.
The decline extends a downtrend that began in early October, following bitcoin’s failure to break above $94,700 last week. For a recovery, BTC would need to reclaim $95,000 and push toward $98,000, though year-end catalysts remain scarce. The average crypto relative strength index (RSI) sits at 38.49, indicating oversold conditions and potential for a short-term relief rally.
Derivatives and positioning
BTC’s 30-day implied volatility (Volmex BVIV) remains below an annualized 50%, suggesting calm ahead of Thursday’s U.S. inflation report and Friday’s Bank of Japan rate decision. Its 90-day historical volatility now aligns with major tech stocks like Tesla and Nvidia, reflecting market maturation.
Long positions on Bitfinex reached their highest levels since February, while futures open interest across most tokens—including BTC and ether (ETH $2,973.28)—declined over 24 hours. Exceptions included BCH, UNI, and NEAR, which saw moderate increases. On Deribit, put writing at $85,000 and call writing at $95,000–$100,000 signals a likely broad near-term trading range. BTC and ETH puts remain pricier than calls, reflecting persistent downside concerns and call overwriting.
Altcoins
Altcoins underperformed against bitcoin, pushing BTC dominance to 58.7% from 57.8% on Nov. 26. ASTER and TAO led losses among top-100 tokens, down 6.5% and 6.1% since midnight UTC. ASTER’s decline extends a bearish trend exceeding 20% since Monday, as hype around BNB Chain derivatives wanes.
Bullish outliers included Monero (XMR $438.72), up 0.2%, and Cardano’s privacy token NIGHT, rising more than 5% in European morning trading. The “altcoin season” indicator remains at 19/100, showing the market remains firmly focused on bitcoin since October’s liquidation-driven downturn.
