Bitwise Predicts Bitcoin Breakout in 2026 Amid Rising Institutional Demand
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan expects bitcoin (BTC$88,100.66) to reach new all-time highs in 2026, driven by lower volatility and weaker correlations with equities, which are reshaping institutional interest in the asset.
Bitwise said clients should prepare for a different bitcoin market next year, as the cryptocurrency matures alongside growing institutional participation. The firm noted that bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle is losing influence: halvings are less impactful, interest rates are expected to fall, and leverage has been curtailed following major liquidations in late 2025.
“The forces that previously drove four-year cycles—the bitcoin halving, interest rate cycles, and leverage-fueled booms and busts—are significantly weaker than in past cycles,” Hougan wrote in a Monday blog post. Halvings historically cut miner rewards by 50%, slowing supply growth.
Spot ETF inflows and broader access through major brokerages could drive bitcoin to new highs instead of a typical post-halving decline. Hougan noted that bitcoin has been less volatile than Nvidia (NVDA) in 2025, with price swings trending lower over the past decade as ETF ownership expands.
Looking ahead, Hougan expects bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. equities to drop, with crypto-specific catalysts, regulation, adoption, and product innovation increasingly shaping performance. Bitwise believes these trends could make 2026 a breakout year for bitcoin, attracting tens of billions in new institutional capital.
