NYDIG’s Cipolaro: Popular mNAV Metric Fails to Capture True Valuation of Bitcoin Treasury Stocks
As a wave of companies focused on accumulating Bitcoin enters public markets, investors are rethinking how to value this new class of “Bitcoin treasuries.” But one popular tool—modified net asset value (mNAV)—may not be enough, argues NYDIG’s Greg Cipolaro.
In a new report dated June 6, Cipolaro, the global head of research at the Bitcoin financial services firm, said that mNAV alone is “woefully deficient” when analyzing the relative value of Bitcoin treasury firms.
The Premium That Powers the Model
According to Cipolaro, the key metric to watch is the equity premium to net asset value (NAV)—a measure of how much a company’s market valuation exceeds (or lags) its net assets, including Bitcoin holdings, cash, and enterprise value, minus liabilities such as debt or preferred stock.
“This premium is what enables these firms to effectively act as Bitcoin money changers—issuing stock to acquire more BTC,” Cipolaro noted.
While mNAV—defined as the ratio of a company’s market value to its net Bitcoin holdings—has become a go-to valuation metric, it doesn’t tell the full story. Cipolaro’s team supplemented their analysis with additional ratios, including:
- NAV
- mNAV by market cap
- mNAV by enterprise value
- Equity premium to NAV
Surprising Valuations
The report highlights that Semler Scientific (SMLR) and Trump Media (DJT) have the lowest equity premiums to NAV among eight firms studied, at -10% and -16%, respectively. This is despite both companies showing mNAVs above 1.1, suggesting that while their stocks trade above the value of their Bitcoin holdings, they’re still undervalued relative to their overall asset base.
By contrast, MicroStrategy (MSTR)—the pioneer in corporate Bitcoin accumulation—is still seen as the benchmark. MSTR shares rose nearly 5% Monday, while SMLR and DJT were mostly flat, despite Bitcoin climbing from $105,000 to $108,500 over the weekend.
A New Framework Needed
With more companies embracing a “Bitcoin-on-the-balance-sheet” strategy, Cipolaro believes that evaluating them requires a multi-dimensional framework, not just a single ratio.
“A true comparison demands more than mNAV—it demands context,” he emphasized.
As crypto-native equities mature, valuation methods will need to evolve. For now, metrics like equity premium to NAV could become the preferred lens for investors seeking to understand how much the market is really willing to pay for Bitcoin exposure through public equities.
