Traders Brace for Volatility as $17B in Bitcoin, Ether Options Set to Expire
Over $17 billion worth of bitcoin and ether options are set to expire on Deribit this Friday, marking one of the largest monthly expirations of the year and raising expectations of heightened volatility across crypto markets.
Bitcoin (BTC) was trading near $113,000 on Wednesday, close to its max pain level of $114,000 — the point at which most options expire worthless. The proximity to this zone often reflects market makers’ hedging activity ahead of expiry.
Data from Deribit show 72,716 BTC call contracts and 54,945 put contracts maturing this week, representing a combined notional value of roughly $14.4 billion. Meanwhile, ether (ETH) options account for another $2.6 billion in open interest, with 375,225 calls and 262,850 puts outstanding.
The expiry comes amid a critical Federal Reserve meeting and a packed U.S. tech earnings calendar, both of which could influence sentiment across risk assets.
Out-of-the-money (OTM) options dominate positioning, making up over 80% of open interest, a sign of speculative behavior rather than directional conviction. On the bitcoin side, large call concentrations sit at $120,000–$130,000, while put exposure is heaviest near $100,000–$110,000.
For ether, the max pain level is estimated around $4,110, just above its current price of $4,000, suggesting traders anticipate range-bound action unless macro catalysts trigger a breakout.
“Crypto traders are heading into a convergence of risk events,” one market analyst said. “Between the Fed’s rate decision, earnings volatility, and Friday’s massive expiry, we could see sharp swings as positioning resets.”
According to Checkonchain, Deribit’s share of global bitcoin options open interest has fallen from about 80% before IBIT launched options in late 2024 to around 44% today, matching IBIT’s share — a sign of growing institutional depth in the crypto derivatives market.
As Friday’s expiry approaches, traders are watching whether BTC will hold near its $114,000 gravity zone or break away — a move that could set the tone for November’s market direction.
