Brazil’s B3 exchange is set to debut a new class of derivatives that allow investors to wager on the probability of future events, marking a regulated entry into the prediction-style market segment.
From April 27, the exchange will roll out six “Event Contracts” tied to bitcoin, the U.S. dollar, and the Ibovespa index. The instruments function similarly to platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, with prices capped at 100 reais (around $19), reflecting the market’s implied odds of a given outcome.
These contracts fall under the supervision of Brazil’s securities regulator, the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM), and are aimed exclusively at professional investors. Access is limited to individuals or entities with at least 10 million reais ($1.9 million) in assets or those holding CVM certification.
The initial lineup includes contracts based on both spot and mini futures price movements. Like other event-driven products, they offer fixed payouts and clearly defined risk, with all trades settled in cash rather than through delivery of the underlying asset.
According to Luiz Masagão, B3’s Vice President of Products and Clients, the initiative is part of a broader strategy to modernize Brazil’s derivatives market. He noted that B3 has already introduced contracts linked to central bank decisions and has been closely monitoring the rapid expansion of prediction markets globally.
Alongside this push, B3 is advancing its digital asset roadmap. The exchange disclosed plans last year to launch a tokenization platform and issue a stablecoin, both expected to go live this year.
The launch represents Brazil’s first federally regulated foray into prediction-style markets, a space that has so far operated largely in a legal gray area. Domestic platforms such as Prévias and Palpitada have already gained traction, while U.S.-based Kalshi has partnered with XP International, one of Brazil’s largest brokerages, to offer contracts tied to Brazilian economic indicators.
Globally, prediction markets are experiencing rapid growth. Total notional volume is approaching $160 billion, with more than 3 million users participating, according to Dune Analytics. Polymarket and Kalshi dominate the sector, accounting for the majority of activity.
Traditional financial institutions are also increasing their exposure. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, has expanded its investment in Polymarket, bringing its total commitment to nearly $2 billion.
Despite the momentum, regulatory uncertainty remains. In Brazil, it is still unclear whether oversight of prediction markets will ultimately fall under the CVM, the Central Bank, or the Ministry of Finance, reflecting broader global questions around how these markets should be governed.
