Bitcoin’s True Bottom May Be at $65K, Says Analyst James Check, with Long-Term Support at $50K
Where is the bottom for Bitcoin (BTC)?
While it’s possible that Bitcoin has already reached its bottom, on-chain analyst James Check believes a true bottom might not form until the market experiences a significant capitulation event.
Check suggests that this capitulation could occur if Bitcoin drops to the $65,000 range, which he refers to as the “true market mean.” This level represents the average cost basis for active investors. According to Check, at this price point, many investors may start to feel the pressure of unrealized losses. Even long-term holders—those who have held Bitcoin for five years—could find themselves in the red. This price level is notably close to Michael Saylor’s strategy, which has a cost basis around $67,500.
What Happens After Capitulation?
Check anticipates that Bitcoin could see substantial declines if it reaches the $65,000 range, but he believes that the $49,000-$50,000 area will offer strong long-term support. These levels correspond to key moments in Bitcoin’s recent history, such as the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, as well as a $1 trillion market capitalization for the cryptocurrency. A drop below $40,000, according to Check, is unlikely unless there’s a global recession.
He also pointed out the prolonged period of “chopsolidation” in 2024, where Bitcoin traded within a wide range between $50K and $70K for months. This, Check argues, has helped establish a solid foundation of support for the cryptocurrency at these price levels.
