Crypto markets treaded carefully on Tuesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, with attention focused less on the rate outcome and more on forward guidance.
Bitcoin (BTC) briefly surged past $76,000 during overnight trading before pulling back to around $74,000 in the U.S. session, still modestly higher over the past 24 hours.
Crypto-related stocks also moved higher. Circle gained roughly 5%, while Bitdeer jumped 12%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.5% and the S&P 500 added 0.25%.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. Instead, markets are focused on the tone and outlook from Chair Jerome Powell and other policymakers.
Rising oil prices — fueled in part by ongoing tensions involving Iran — have added complexity to the inflation outlook, raising questions about the Fed’s next steps.
According to Bitfinex analysts, the key issue is whether policymakers continue to signal rate cuts in 2026 or begin shifting toward a more hawkish stance. A move in that direction could pressure risk assets, including crypto, by boosting the U.S. dollar.
Powell’s assessment of the recent oil surge will also be closely watched. If he frames it as a temporary supply shock, markets may remain supported. However, a more persistent, stagflationary view could limit the Fed’s flexibility and weigh on asset prices.
Bitfinex analysts added that the most bearish scenario for markets would involve hotter-than-expected PPI inflation data followed by hawkish remarks from Powell — a combination that could undermine the recent crypto rally.
