Bitcoin slipped below $91,000 amid renewed tariff threats from President Donald Trump, as options market activity points to growing downside risk.
On Derive.xyz, a decentralized on-chain options platform, traders assign roughly a 30% probability to bitcoin falling below $80,000 by the end of June. Similar positioning is seen on Deribit, the largest centralized options exchange.
“Options markets show a clear downside skew, with a 30% chance BTC falls below $80K by June 26, versus a 19% chance it rallies above $120K,” said Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive.
Open interest is concentrated in put options with strike prices between $75,000 and $80,000, suggesting traders anticipate a pullback into the mid-$70,000s. Such a move would mark bitcoin’s lowest level since April 2025, when the cryptocurrency fell to $75,000 amid U.S. tariffs that rattled global markets.
The latest tariff tensions stem from Trump’s threat of a 10% levy on imports from 10 European nations over opposition to his Greenland plan, pushing bitcoin down from $95,000 to around $91,000.
“Rising U.S.-Europe tensions — particularly around Greenland — raise the risk of higher volatility, which is not fully reflected in spot markets,” Dawson added.
