Bitcoin (BTC) trades above $74,000 ahead of the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting, after eight straight daily gains. Data from bitcoin lender Two Prime, however, suggests caution: FOMC meetings have often triggered short-term BTC pullbacks.
In 2025, bitcoin fell within 48 hours of seven out of eight FOMC meetings, indicating that volatility tends to stem from the event itself rather than its outcome.
Markets price near certainty that the Fed will hold rates at 3.50%–3.75%, with only one 25-basis-point cut expected by year-end. Kevin Warsh is set to become Fed chair in June.
Geopolitical tensions and oil near $100 a barrel may keep CPI inflation high, limiting Fed flexibility. Bitcoin’s current bullish streak raises the risk of a classic “sell the news” reaction.
