Bitcoin Volatility Hits Multi-Year Lows as Price Consolidates Ahead of CPI
11 September 2025
Bitcoin’s implied volatility has dropped to multi-year lows, signaling continued sideways price action as traders await key U.S. economic data.
Analyst Checkmate highlights the cryptocurrency’s “choppiness index,” a measure of rangebound trading, noting that volatility compression has intensified in recent weeks. Previous CoinDesk research also confirms that bitcoin’s low implied volatility aligns with its ongoing consolidation.
Over the past few months, bitcoin has mostly traded between $110,000 and its all-time high of $124,000, currently hovering around $113,000. On a one-month timeframe, CheckOnChain reports the choppiness index at 54. Historically, readings above this level have often preceded major price moves: in November 2024, ahead of President Trump’s election victory, the index peaked at 64 as bitcoin surged past $90,000. An earlier instance occurred in early 2023 at the start of the current bull cycle, when the index stood at 57.
These patterns suggest that bitcoin may remain rangebound for now, with further consolidation likely as volatility remains compressed.
Traders are eyeing the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release at 12:30 PM UTC, which could act as a catalyst for a breakout or directional move. Historical patterns indicate that extended periods of low volatility can precede sharp market shifts. For instance, a similar consolidation phase earlier this year preceded a decline that bottomed around $76,000 in April.
