Bitcoin’s Long-Term Trends Indicate Bull Market May Continue
Although some investors see Q4 as signaling the end of the current market cycle, key long-term metrics suggest that Bitcoin’s bull run may still have significant upside.
Currently, many market participants are viewing Q4 as a potential cycle close. However, Glassnode data highlights two critical indicators that point in the opposite direction:
- The 200-week moving average (200WMA), a benchmark for long-term price trends, has recently surpassed $53,000, maintaining its historically upward trajectory.
- The realized price, which measures the average price at which all circulating BTC last moved on-chain, has climbed above the 200WMA to $54,000, signaling sustained bullish potential.
Historical trends reinforce this perspective:
- In the 2017 and 2021 bull markets, the realized price stayed consistently above the 200WMA, widening the gap before eventually falling below it and marking the start of bear markets.
- During the 2022 downturn, the realized price dropped below the 200WMA but has recently moved back above it, reflecting a pattern consistent with past bull market recoveries.
Analysts note that when Bitcoin’s realized price remains above the 200-week moving average, the market has historically continued higher, suggesting that the current bull market may still have ample room to run.
