Bitcoin’s extended spell of range-bound trading is starting to look increasingly similar to the consolidation phase seen in early 2025 that ultimately preceded a rally to record highs above $126,000.
BTC has been locked in a narrow, back-and-forth pattern for several weeks, closely mirroring the choppy price action observed at the beginning of last year. Since Nov. 21, bitcoin has traded between roughly $80,000 and $95,000, approaching its 50th straight day confined within this nearly 20% range. That duration closely aligns with the late-February to early-April 2025 consolidation, when prices moved sideways between $76,000 and $85,000.
That earlier phase lasted 52 days before breaking higher, eventually driving bitcoin to a peak above $126,000 in October. Traders often describe such prolonged stretches of dull price action as “time-based capitulation,” where boredom and frustration push impatient holders out of the market.
As bitcoin has matured, these time-based capitulations have increasingly replaced the sharp drawdowns that defined earlier market cycles. The broader uptrend that began in 2023 has taken on a stair-step structure, marked by rallies, pullbacks and extended consolidations that lay the groundwork for the next move higher.
Looking ahead, the macro backdrop could again provide support. In traditional markets, the economic re-acceleration trade has gained traction, underpinned by the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, which currently points to real GDP growth of 5.4% in the fourth quarter. While the Federal Reserve may pause in the near term, markets still anticipate around 50 basis points of rate cuts in 2026.
Liquidity expectations have also been bolstered by recent political signals. President Donald Trump said Thursday that he is urging the purchase of up to $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, reinforcing expectations for continued policy support. Former Pimco CEO Mohamed El-Erian noted that political pressure on the Federal Reserve could extend beyond rate cuts to include asset purchases aimed at directly addressing housing affordability.
Trump’s comments, El-Erian added, highlight growing public anxiety around affordability, a dynamic that could ultimately prompt a more forceful policy response.
Taken together, the similarities in price behavior and a potentially supportive macro environment suggest bitcoin’s current consolidation may once again resolve to the upside, echoing the breakout that followed a similar range in April last year
