U.S. inflation data for November, expected to show a 3.1% rise in the consumer price index (CPI), could influence Federal Reserve policy and market sentiment.
Bitcoin (BTC) has been volatile over the past 24 hours, swinging between $86,000 and $90,000 as traders anticipate the report. This will be the first comprehensive look at price pressures since October, when a government shutdown canceled data, leaving the Fed without recent guidance. Consensus estimates forecast headline CPI at 3.1% year-on-year, up from 3% in October, with core inflation, excluding food and energy, also at 3%, above the Fed’s 2% target.
“This report is especially important because the October cancellation left markets partially in the dark,” said Dr. Mohamed A. El-Erian, President of Queens’ College, Cambridge University. Investors will focus on whether disinflation in services is holding and if tariff-driven price pressures are fading.
If inflation shows signs of easing, markets could price in additional rate cuts in 2026, potentially supporting risk assets, including crypto. However, bitcoin has shown limited reaction to recent economic data, including Tuesday’s jobs report, which saw unemployment rise to the highest level since September 2021.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields remain above 4%, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about inflation and Fed policy. A hotter-than-expected CPI could push yields higher, weighing on bitcoin and other risk assets.
Crypto-specific challenges persist as well. MSCI is reviewing the eligibility of digital-asset treasury companies for its indices, potentially excluding firms with more than 50% crypto exposure. QCP Capital notes this could trigger passive outflows of up to $2.8 billion, adding pressure to an already fragile market.
