Bitcoin edged closer to $70,000 as markets responded to signs of easing tensions in the Iran conflict, with more than $270 million in short positions liquidated in a sharp squeeze.
Crypto assets moved higher alongside global equities and index futures after an Axios report revealed that the U.S. and Iran are in discussions over a potential 45-day ceasefire. Hopes of reduced geopolitical risk—especially around the vital Strait of Hormuz—boosted demand for risk assets, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) weakened.
Further reports indicate that Pakistan is helping broker talks under what’s being referred to as the “Islamabad Accord,” which could pave the way for an immediate ceasefire and the reopening of key shipping lanes. Despite the optimism, investors remain cautious about whether an agreement will materialize.
On prediction platform Polymarket, the likelihood of a ceasefire being reached this month has increased to roughly 30%, up from 18% before the latest developments. Still, elevated oil prices and expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged continue to temper bullish sentiment.
If a ceasefire is confirmed, analysts say a broader relief rally could support additional gains in risk assets. For now, however, traders appear to be approaching the headlines with skepticism.
Derivatives markets signal a build-up in bullish positioning. Open interest in bitcoin and ether futures has risen by 7% and 11%, respectively, outpacing spot price gains and pointing to fresh leveraged inflows. Funding rates and cumulative volume deltas remain positive for both assets.
Among altcoins, Cardano (ADA), Avalanche (AVAX), and Chainlink (LINK) have posted double-digit increases in open interest alongside positive funding rates, reflecting constructive sentiment. In contrast, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and HYPE continue to show negative funding rates, suggesting bearish positioning.
Market volatility has continued to decline, reinforcing the recent price strength. Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) has fallen below 50% for the first time since early February, while Ether’s EVIV has dropped to its lowest levels in weeks.
Options data highlights key levels to monitor. On Deribit, bitcoin’s $60,000 put and $80,000 call each hold around $1.4 billion in open interest, making them important zones for downside protection and upside exposure. A breakout beyond this range could trigger a spike in volatility.
Despite bullish signals in futures markets, options traders remain cautious. Put options for BTC and ETH are still priced higher than calls, reflecting ongoing demand for downside hedging. This skew is partly driven by call overwriting strategies used to generate yield.
In token-specific developments, Algorand’s ALGO has surged nearly 50% over the past month after a Google Quantum AI research paper highlighted its quantum-resistant approach.
The study explored how blockchain networks could defend against future quantum computing threats that may compromise current encryption standards. Algorand drew attention for its use of FALCON, a post-quantum signature scheme selected by the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST).
Already implemented in features such as state proofs and certain transaction types, the technology has gained renewed interest. ALGO has risen from around $0.08 to near $0.12, pushing its market capitalization above $1 billion. The token is also up more than 7% in the past 24 hours, supported by the broader market rally.
