Bitcoin and ether held to narrow ranges on Friday as weakness in U.S. equity futures underscored a broader risk-off environment, even as select altcoins posted gains in illiquid trading conditions.
Bitcoin was last seen near $88,950, little changed on the session, while ether slipped about 1% since midnight UTC to trade around $2,920. Crypto price action broadly tracked declines in U.S. stock index futures, with Nasdaq 100 futures down roughly 0.4% and S&P 500 futures lower by about 0.25%.
Risk aversion was more visible in traditional markets, where gold and silver extended their advances to fresh record highs. The move into safe-haven assets comes as investors assess the first trilateral discussions involving Ukraine, Russia and the United States, with expectations muted for a near-term resolution to the conflict.
Despite the cautious backdrop, parts of the altcoin market showed resilience. LayerZero’s ZRO token rallied 12% over the past 24 hours as traders positioned ahead of a major protocol upgrade expected in early February. Tron’s TRX and Dash also gained around 3%, with thin liquidity magnifying price moves.
Derivatives positioning
More than $200 million in crypto futures positions were wiped out over the past 24 hours, driven largely by liquidations of long positions. The pattern has persisted throughout the week as modest price declines caught bullish traders offside.
Bitcoin’s 30-day annualized implied volatility index (BVIV) retreated to 40%, reversing a brief surge to 44% earlier in the week. The pullback suggests continued demand for volatility-selling strategies, including covered calls.
Ether stood out among major tokens as the only top-10 asset to record a slight increase in futures open interest over the past day. By contrast, bitcoin, XRP and solana saw capital flow out of derivatives markets. Open interest–adjusted cumulative volume delta data pointed to net buying in TRX, ZEC and BCH, while bitcoin and several other markets registered net selling pressure.
Options markets reflected greater caution toward ether. On Deribit, short-dated ETH put options were priced at a premium to comparable BTC puts, signaling more bearish positioning on Ethereum. Block trades showed interest in BTC straddles — a wager on volatility — alongside ETH put spreads.
Token talk
The “altcoin season” indicator rose to 29 out of 100 from 24 a week earlier, indicating traders continue to hunt for relative performance in an otherwise subdued market. The bitcoin-heavy CoinDesk 20 Index slipped about 0.6% since midnight UTC, while memecoin, DeFi and metaverse sector indexes posted gains.
Liquidity constraints remain a defining feature of the altcoin market. For instance, the 2% market depth for TON stands between roughly $580,000 and $700,000, meaning comparatively small orders can move the token’s $3.7 billion market capitalization by 2%. While this raises the risk of sharp price swings, it also leaves room for outsized upside if broader market sentiment improves amid thin sell-side order books.
Metaverse tokens continue to lead sector performance this year. The CoinDesk Metaverse Select Index has climbed about 50% since Jan. 1, supported by strong gains in Axie Infinity and The Sandbox.
