Bitcoin closed the first quarter of 2025 with an 11.7% loss — its steepest Q1 decline in a decade — as markets wrestled with rising economic uncertainty and shifting political winds.
According to NYDIG Research, this Q1 performance ranks among the worst in recent memory, placing 12th out of the last 15 first quarters. The downturn is prompting fresh debate over whether the latest crypto bull cycle is stalling or simply recalibrating.
The last time BTC started the year this poorly was in 2015, following the 2013 market peak and the aftermath of Mt. Gox’s collapse. While prices struggled early that year, they eventually stabilized, setting the stage for a broader rally in 2016.
Other negative first quarters have served as turning points. In 2020, bitcoin fell 9.4% amid early pandemic panic, only to end the year more than tripling in value. But in years like 2014, 2018, and 2022 — each following a euphoric top — Q1 losses foreshadowed broader annual declines.
This time, the signals are mixed. The market surged in late 2024 after Donald Trump’s election win, fueled by optimism around his pro-crypto stance. Since taking office, his administration has eased regulatory tensions, with the SEC pulling back from several high-profile enforcement actions.
But bullish momentum has hit a wall.
Last week, Trump’s announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs triggered a violent reaction across financial markets, erasing $5.4 trillion from U.S. equities in just 48 hours. The S&P 500 hit its lowest point in nearly a year, and the Nasdaq 100 slid into bear market territory.
While bitcoin held up better than tech stocks — for now — the coming days may determine whether it can maintain its relative strength. All eyes are on Monday’s market open.
Historically, poor Q1s haven’t been an automatic death knell for bitcoin. NYDIG notes that BTC has rebounded in roughly half of the years where it began in the red. However, with global macro conditions tightening and talk of recession growing louder, the market could put bitcoin’s narrative as a “U.S. isolation hedge” to the test.
