Bitcoin Implied Volatility Hits 2.5-Month High Amid Seasonal Strength
Bitcoin (BTC, $118,200) implied volatility (IV) has surged to a 2.5-month peak, reflecting both recent price momentum and historical seasonal trends pointing to a strong Q4.
Volmex’s Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index (BVIV), which tracks annualized expected price swings over four weeks, climbed to 42%, the highest level since late August, according to TradingView. Elevated IV suggests traders are anticipating larger near-term price moves.
The increase comes alongside Bitcoin’s recovery from a pullback from record highs above $126,000 to around $120,000.
Seasonal Trends Support the Move
October historically sees a rise in both volatility and price. BVIV spiked in the same period in 2023 and 2024, and 2025 is showing similar patterns. Coinglass data shows Bitcoin has averaged roughly 6% weekly gains in late October, while November has historically delivered the strongest returns, often exceeding 45%.
Market Context
Since late last year, Bitcoin’s IV has tended to rise during price pullbacks, reflecting the classic inverse relationship between volatility and price. Long-term trends show a gradual decline in IV, consistent with Bitcoin’s maturation as an asset.
