Crypto Markets Await September CPI; Ether Likely to See Larger Swings
Crypto traders are eyeing September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Friday, the first major economic data point since the U.S. government shutdown. FactSet expects a 3.1% year-over-year increase, the highest in 18 months, up from August’s 2.9%, with a 0.4% monthly rise matching the previous month.
Core Inflation and Fed Outlook
Excluding food and energy, core CPI is forecast to rise 3.1% YoY, with a 0.3% monthly gain. Economists largely expect the Federal Reserve to proceed with a 25 basis point rate cut next week, regardless of the print.
A hotter-than-expected reading may strengthen the U.S. dollar, potentially limiting crypto gains, while a softer CPI could spark a risk-on reaction, according to Zerocap.
Expected Crypto Volatility
Options markets project Ether (ETH) could swing ±2.9%, exceeding Bitcoin’s (BTC) ±1.4%. XRP and Solana implied volatility indicate expected 24-hour moves of 4.7% and 4%, respectively. These figures represent direction-agnostic volatility, not bullish or bearish sentiment.
Technical Signals
Bitcoin shows early bullish stochastic divergence, suggesting downside momentum may be easing and a short-term recovery could be possible, according to Markus Thielen of 10x Research.
The CPI release is expected to drive heightened volatility, with high-beta tokens like Ether likely to respond more sharply than Bitcoin.
