Bitcoin hovered around $68,780 on Tuesday, as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their strongest daily inflows in over a month, underscoring their growing influence on market dynamics.
SoSoValue data shows that ETFs attracted a combined $471 million on April 6, marking the largest inflow since Feb. 25 and the sixth-biggest daily total this year. Despite the uptick, flows remain below January’s peak levels, when several trading sessions saw inflows surpass $700 million.
The renewed demand comes as Bitcoin continues to struggle to break above the $70,000 level. Spot market activity has been relatively subdued, while ongoing distribution from large holders has capped price gains. In this environment, ETF inflows have increasingly stepped in to absorb supply and support prices.
Macro conditions, however, remain largely unchanged. According to Polymarket data, markets are pricing in a 98% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its April meeting, with limited expectations for near-term policy shifts.
Beyond short-term drivers, Bitcoin’s relationship with global monetary trends appears to be evolving. A recent Binance Research report highlights a sharp reversal in its correlation with the Global Easing Breadth Index, which tracks the policy stance of 41 central banks.
Since 2024—the year U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved—this correlation has turned strongly negative. Historically, Bitcoin tended to follow global easing cycles with a lag, but that dynamic has now reversed, with the inverse relationship becoming significantly stronger.
The shift points to a change in market structure. Retail investors once dominated marginal price action, typically reacting to macro developments after the fact. In contrast, ETF-driven institutional flows appear more anticipatory, positioning ahead of expected policy changes.
“BTC may have evolved from a macro ‘lagging receiver’ to a ‘leading pricer,’” Binance Research noted.
As ETF inflows continue to absorb supply and stabilize prices, Bitcoin may increasingly trade as a forward-looking asset—pricing in central bank policy shifts ahead of traditional markets rather than reacting after they unfold.
