Early Bitcoin adopters are dialing back exposure as the Federal Reserve reinforces a hawkish policy outlook, weakening expectations for multiple rate cuts and weighing on risk assets.
According to on-chain data from Lookonchain, at least two long-term holders sold a combined 1,650 BTC—valued at roughly $118 million—early Thursday. One prominent whale, who had previously offloaded 11,000 BTC, added another 650 BTC to the sell pressure, while a separate early investor liquidated 1,000 BTC from a 5,000 BTC position.
The sales came as Bitcoin slipped about 1% to near $70,600, extending its prior session’s 3.5% decline from $74,500, based on data from CoinDesk. The broader market also moved lower, with the CoinDesk 20 Index dropping around 3%. Major tokens including Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin followed the downward trend.
The decline followed the Fed’s latest decision to hold interest rates steady in the 3.5%–3.75% range while signaling a slower pace of easing than markets had anticipated. Investors had been expecting a more aggressive rate-cut cycle.
That shift was reflected in the Fed’s updated “dot plot,” which now points to a median expectation of just one rate cut this year, despite signs of softening in the labor market. Only a small number of policymakers continue to project multiple cuts, while Chair Jerome Powell also raised his own rate outlook.
Matt Mena of 21Shares said persistent inflation and rising energy prices are reinforcing a “higher-for-longer” narrative, forcing markets to scale back expectations for rapid easing.
This shift is also visible in market pricing. Data from Polymarket and CME Group Fed funds futures now suggest roughly an 80% probability of just one rate cut this year—up from expectations a month ago, when traders were leaning toward multiple cuts.
With tighter liquidity conditions back in focus, sentiment toward risk assets has weakened, prompting large Bitcoin holders to take profits and reduce positions.
