Markets are back on edge as cracks emerge in the U.S.-Iran ceasefire less than 48 hours after it was announced, reversing much of the optimism that fueled this week’s rally.
Tehran has indicated that elements of the agreement have already been violated, with Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf saying three clauses were breached. At the same time, Israeli operations in Lebanon continue, and the Strait of Hormuz—central to global oil flows—remains effectively closed, with only limited tanker movement despite earlier commitments to reopen it.
Oil prices have reacted quickly. Brent crude rebounded 2% to near $97 after plunging more than 10% in the prior session, underscoring how rapidly sentiment has shifted from de-escalation to renewed uncertainty.
Bitcoin (BTC) edged lower to $70,981, down 0.5% on the day but still holding a 6.1% weekly gain. The asset had rallied sharply earlier in the week, climbing from around $67,000 to above $72,000 on ceasefire hopes, and is so far managing to hold above the $70,000 level.
Altcoins, however, are showing more pronounced weakness. Ether fell 2.6% to $2,180, while Solana (SOL) dropped 3.1% to $81.96. XRP declined 3% to $1.33, and Dogecoin slid 3.4% to $0.091. BNB was relatively stable, down 2.2% to around $600.
Traditional markets are also turning cautious. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.9% after a strong rally the previous day, with losers outpacing gainers. Futures for the S&P 500 and European equities point to a modest 0.2% pullback, suggesting a pause in the recent global equity rebound. U.S. Treasuries were steady as rising oil prices renewed concerns about inflation.
The broader macro backdrop remains challenging. The Federal Reserve continues to emphasize inflation risks even as labor markets soften, reinforcing expectations that rates will stay elevated. In Japan, wage growth has reached multi-decade highs, adding to expectations of further tightening.
Taken together, the environment reflects ongoing pressure from both monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainty, limiting risk appetite.
Even so, bitcoin’s recent price action remains relatively constructive. The move from $67,000 to $72,700 following the ceasefire announcement—and its ability to hold above $70,000—marks its strongest performance since the conflict began six weeks ago.
The wider $65,000–$73,000 range that has defined trading since late February remains intact, but bitcoin is now testing the upper end of that range—a shift that could prove meaningful if support continues to hold.
