Bitcoin (BTC) starts September under historical pressure, with losses recorded in nine of the last 14 Septembers, averaging a 12% decline.
BTC opened the week near $110,000, its lowest level in nearly two months, while total crypto market capitalization slipped to $3.74 trillion, a three-week low. Over the past 24 hours, Solana (SOL) led gains at 4%, with XRP up 1% and Cardano (ADA) rising 1.5%.
Traders caution that macro uncertainty, fragile sentiment, and low trading volumes leave little room for error. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, noted BTC’s failure to hold $112,000, warning of potential downside toward $105,000, a key support ahead of the psychological $100,000 barrier.
The crypto fear index slipped to 40, its lowest since April, signaling growing caution. Historical September drawdowns—in 2017, 2019, 2021, and 2022—often coincided with liquidity squeezes and macro jitters.
ETF flows add to the uncertainty. Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $440 million in net outflows last week, while Ether ETFs saw $1 billion in inflows, suggesting rotation rather than net growth. Spot ETFs now hold 1.3 million BTC, about 6% of total supply.
Market attention now turns to Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report, expected at 45,000 jobs. A weak reading could bolster expectations for a Fed rate cut, potentially reigniting risk-on sentiment, while options data show elevated demand for puts, signaling continued caution.
