Global markets are facing rising uncertainty as geopolitical tensions intensify and oil prices surge above $100 per barrel. Despite the broader market stress, Bitcoin has remained relatively resilient so far.
The leading cryptocurrency was trading around $67,378 on Monday morning, up about 1.1% over the past 24 hours and largely unchanged over the past week, even as traditional financial markets have deteriorated.
Among other major digital assets, Ether gained 2.3% to $1,981, holding just below the $2,000 level. BNB rose 1.4% to $624, while Dogecoin advanced 1.8% to around $0.09. Solana climbed 1.8% to $83.69 but remains down roughly 1.5% over the past week, making it the weakest-performing major token on a seven-day basis. XRP was largely unchanged at $1.35 and is down about 1% over the same period.
Traditional markets, however, are showing greater signs of strain. Futures tied to the S&P 500 dropped more than 2% during Asian trading hours. Meanwhile, the CBOE Volatility Index climbed to its highest level since the tariff-related volatility seen in April. Oil prices have pushed past $100 per barrel, while the U.S. dollar recently posted its strongest weekly gain in roughly a year.
Amid these developments, veteran market strategist Ed Yardeni increased his estimate for the likelihood of a U.S. market meltdown this year to 35%, up from 20%. At the same time, he reduced the probability of a market “melt-up” to just 5%.
“The U.S. economy and stock market are stuck between Iran and a hard place,” Yardeni wrote, warning that if the oil shock persists, policymakers could face a difficult balancing act between rising inflation and growing unemployment risks.
In periods of intense market stress, investors typically reduce exposure to volatile assets and shift capital toward safer options such as cash, U.S. Treasuries, or the dollar. Although often viewed as a hedge, bitcoin has historically declined alongside equities during major risk-off episodes since 2020.
Still, analysts say bitcoin’s correlation with stocks is limited. In a recent note, Greg Cipolaro explained that the cryptocurrency’s recent tendency to move in tandem with U.S. software stocks likely reflects shared exposure to the current macroeconomic environment rather than a fundamental structural link.
According to Cipolaro, roughly 25% of bitcoin’s price movements can be attributed to its correlation with equities, while the remaining 75% is driven by factors unique to the crypto market.
The broader equity outlook remains weak. A global stock gauge tracked by MSCI fell 3.7% last week, with Asian markets experiencing the steepest losses. South Korea’s market has yet to fully recover from a record two-day plunge, while hedge funds have been increasing short positions in U.S. equity ETFs. At the same time, yields on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose six basis points as traders priced in inflation risks linked to higher oil prices.
Although U.S. stocks have so far performed somewhat better than those in other regions—partly due to the country’s relative energy independence—the S&P 500 still declined about 2% last week.
However, the more than 2% drop in stock futures early Monday suggests that this relative resilience may be fading.
