Bitcoin Futures Spread Drops as Market Moves Beyond ‘Trump Bump’ Narrative
The belief that a pro-crypto president would be a lasting tailwind for the industry appears to be fading, with macroeconomic trends now taking center stage in driving market sentiment.
The bullish optimism that followed Donald Trump’s victory in the Nov. 5 presidential election has dissipated, as reflected in the CME Bitcoin (BTC) futures market.
A key indicator—the spread between continuous next-month and front-month standard BTC futures contracts—has narrowed to $495, the lowest level since Election Day. The spread had previously surged to $1,705 on Dec. 17, marking the peak of post-election euphoria, but has now fully retraced, according to TradingView data.
“The tightening of this spread suggests that traders are adjusting their expectations for Bitcoin’s near-term performance,” said Thomas Erdösi, head of product at CF Benchmarks, in an interview with CoinDesk.
This shift indicates that the market has likely moved beyond the assumption that a pro-crypto administration in the White House will be a game-changer, refocusing instead on broader economic forces.
“What we’re seeing is a notable repricing of the front contract basis, signaling that the initial enthusiasm around Trump’s election has been fully factored in,” Erdösi added.
Macroeconomic Pressures Weigh on Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s decline has coincided with broader market headwinds. Since early February, BTC has dropped 20%, while the Nasdaq—a tech-heavy index—has slid 8%. A mix of geopolitical tensions, new trade tariffs from Trump, and concerns over inflation and economic growth have all contributed to the downturn.
Adding to market uncertainty was the underwhelming impact of Trump’s newly announced Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which aims to manage confiscated BTC rather than actively purchase more.
“The announcement wasn’t what many traders were hoping for,” said Ian Balina, founder and CEO of Token Metrics. “Instead of accumulating new Bitcoin, the plan simply ensures that the government won’t sell existing holdings, which, while positive, fell short of market expectations and led to a price decline.”
Futures Market Still in Contango
Despite the narrowing spread between front-month and next-month Bitcoin futures, the overall futures curve remains in contango, meaning contracts with longer maturities continue to trade at a premium.
This pricing structure is standard across financial markets due to factors like storage, financing costs, and general expectations of rising prices over time.
“The fact that perpetual funding rates remain positive and the futures basis is still in contango suggests that the recent move was driven by unleveraged spot buyers exiting the market, rather than a broader structural breakdown,” Erdösi explained.
While the initial “Trump bump” may have faded, the long-term trajectory of Bitcoin will likely depend on larger economic forces, regulatory clarity, and continued institutional adoption.
