Bitcoin Bulls Poised to Win Either Way as March Jobs Report Looms
Bitcoin (BTC) is holding firm above its March lows, signaling seller fatigue and potential upside—even as markets brace for the release of key U.S. labor market data.
As the March nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report approaches, BTC traders find themselves in a seemingly win-win setup. Much like the dual-sided logic of Two-Face from The Dark Knight, the current macro backdrop suggests bitcoin bulls could emerge victorious, regardless of whether the data comes in hot or cold.
A Tale of Two Outcomes
President Donald Trump’s surprise announcement on Wednesday of broad-based tariffs on 180 countries has reintroduced fears of a global economic slowdown. That, in turn, has bolstered expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with markets now pricing in 100 basis points of easing in 2025, beginning as early as June (per the CME’s FedWatch tool).
In this environment:
- Stronger-than-expected NFP data could be brushed off by markets as lagging behind the newly heightened recession risks tied to tariffs. Any downside reaction in BTC could be short-lived, quickly bought up by traders focused on the broader easing narrative.
- Weaker-than-expected data would reinforce rate cut expectations and elevate appetite for risk assets like bitcoin, especially as investors rotate away from the dollar and traditional safe havens.
Price Action and Volatility
At last check, bitcoin was trading at $84,190, recovering from a dip below $82,000 on Thursday. The sustained hold above the $77,000 March low, despite elevated geopolitical and macro pressure, hints at waning selling momentum and room for BTC to climb.
The Volmex one-day implied volatility index shows a reading of 65% annualized, suggesting an expected 3.4% price swing over the next 24 hours—a moderate move relative to recent standards.
What to Watch
The NFP report, due at 12:30 UTC, is expected to show 130,000 new jobs in March, a slowdown from February’s 151,000, according to FactSet. The unemployment rate is forecast to rise slightly to 4.2%, with monthly wage growth projected at 0.3%, matching the prior month.
In short, whether the jobs data shows labor market strength or signs of cooling, bitcoin bulls appear well-positioned to benefit—a rare market scenario where either coin flip could land in their favor.
