Bitcoin Shows Continued Outperformance Against Tech Benchmarks, Signaling Potential Shift in Market Dynamics
Bitcoin (BTC) is on the verge of achieving a notable breakout relative to the Nasdaq 100 Composite, as the current BTC/Nasdaq ratio stands at 4.96. This means that nearly five units of the Nasdaq are now needed to equal the value of a single bitcoin. The previous record of 5.08 was set in January 2025, coinciding with bitcoin’s all-time high of over $109,000.
This marks a continuation of a broader trend observed in each market cycle, with the ratio reaching new peaks in 2017, 2021, and now 2025. These cycles underscore bitcoin’s resilience and outperformance relative to the traditional tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq.
Looking at the broader market, bitcoin is showing increasing divergence from U.S. tech stocks. Year-to-date, bitcoin is down only 6%, compared to a 15% drop in the Nasdaq. Moreover, since Donald Trump’s election win in November 2024, bitcoin has surged by 30%, while the Nasdaq has seen a decline of 12%.
When measured against the “Magnificent Seven” — the group of major tech stocks — bitcoin remains roughly 20% below its February 2025 all-time high. This suggests that while bitcoin has maintained strength, the top-performing tech stocks have proven more resilient than the broader Nasdaq Composite.
Interestingly, MicroStrategy (MSTR), often used as a proxy for bitcoin exposure, has outperformed the broader U.S. tech stocks. Since joining the QQQ ETF on December 23, MSTR has declined by just 11%, whereas the ETF itself has fallen by over 16%. The divergence has become even more pronounced in 2025, with MSTR up 6% year-to-date, while the QQQ ETF is down by 15%.
