Downside concerns for bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) have eased as investors prepare for the Federal Reserve’s expected rate cut on Sept. 17. Market data suggest the next price moves will depend largely on the size of the cut.
BTC’s seven-day call/put skew, which tracks implied volatility between bullish and bearish options, has rebounded to near zero from a bearish 4% last week, according to Amberdata. Longer-term 30- and 60-day skews, while still slightly negative, have also recovered. Ether shows a similar trend.
The skew reflects market sentiment: a positive reading indicates bullish positioning, while a negative skew points to higher demand for downside protection. Prices have responded accordingly—BTC has gained over 4% to $116,000, and ETH has climbed nearly 8% to $4,650, according to CoinDesk.
CME Fed funds futures price in over a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point cut, though a surprise 50-bps reduction remains possible. Greg Magadini, Amberdata’s director of derivatives, said a 50-bps cut would be a strong “+gamma buy signal” for BTC, ETH, SOL, and gold. If the Fed delivers the expected 25-bps cut, BTC is likely to continue a steady upward trend, while ETH may take another week or so to retest $5,000.
