Asia Morning Briefing: SBF Clemency Odds Rise After Trump Pardons CZ
Speculation over a potential pardon for Sam Bankman-Fried is gaining momentum after former President Donald Trump granted a full pardon to Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, erasing his criminal record.
Prediction Markets React Swiftly
Following the announcement, traders on Polymarket lifted the odds of Bankman-Fried receiving clemency by five percentage points to 12%, while a similar contract on Kalshi jumped nine points to 16%.
The reaction highlights renewed confidence that the FTX founder might one day secure leniency. Earlier this year, Bankman-Fried launched a media charm offensive, including an appearance on Tucker Carlson’s podcast, where he cast himself as a conservative-leaning figure punished for political reasons.
Behind the scenes, his parents have been courting Trump allies, hoping to win support for a potential reduction or pardon of his 25-year prison sentence.
A Market Surprise
Trump’s decision to pardon CZ surprised most traders, who had long viewed such moves as unlikely. For much of the year, odds of an SBF pardon hovered between 20% and 40%, reflecting deep skepticism about his chances.
Prediction markets are often accurate indicators of political outcomes — but not always. A sudden SBF pardon would be one of those improbable moments that reality occasionally delivers, the kind that would seem too far-fetched even for The Altruists, Netflix’s upcoming series on the FTX collapse.
Market Recap
Bitcoin (BTC): Rose 2.7% to around $110,700 on Thursday, rebounding from midweek losses as traders positioned ahead of Friday’s U.S. inflation data.
Ether (ETH): Held near $3,850, with analysts identifying signs of a Wyckoff re-accumulation pattern. Institutional flows continue to strengthen expectations of an $8,000–$10,000 target later in the market cycle.
Gold: Hovered around $4,126, up nearly 50% year-to-date after breaking above $4,000. Continued geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, and uncertainty over Fed policy are driving demand. Morgan Stanley raised its 2026 forecast to $4,400, though it cautioned that high prices could weigh on jewelry and reserve purchases.
Nikkei 225: Advanced 0.78% on Friday as Asia-Pacific equities climbed following confirmation of Trump–Xi talks set for next week.
