Gold Nears Record Highs as Treasury Curve Steepens, Potentially Boosting Bitcoin
Gold (XAU) has climbed to its highest level since April, approaching the $3,499 record, as a steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve draws investor attention. Analysts suggest that this trend could also benefit bitcoin (BTC).
In the past ten days, gold rose over 5% to $3,480 per ounce. The rally coincides with a “bull steepening” in the Treasury curve, where short-term yields fall faster than long-term yields. The 10-year minus 2-year spread widened to 61 basis points—the highest since January 2022—while the 30-year minus 2-year spread hit 1.30%, the widest since November 2021.
The 2-year yield fell 33 basis points to 3.62% in August, compared with a smaller 14-point decline in the 10-year yield, now at 4.23%. Lower front-end yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, making gold more attractive for institutional investors.
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, noted that this environment encourages investment in gold, especially for asset managers previously constrained by higher funding costs. Gold-backed ETFs lost 800 tons between 2022 and 2024 amid rising rates, but current conditions support renewed accumulation.
Bitcoin shares some of gold’s appeal as a non-yielding store of value. Falling short-term yields enhance BTC’s attractiveness, particularly alongside stable long-term yields, which reflect inflation expectations and fiscal risks.
Historically, bull steepening favors gold and mining stocks while equities tend to underperform. Bitcoin’s dual characteristics—tech-adjacent yet gold-like—position it as a potential hedge amid rising market uncertainty.
