Gold Outperforms in 2025 as BTC-Gold Ratio Signals Potential Year-End Breakout
Gold has surged 33% in 2025, tripling the gains of the Nasdaq 100 and nearly doubling bitcoin’s (BTC) performance. The BTC-XAU ratio, which measures how many ounces of gold are needed to buy one bitcoin, has dropped to 31.2 ounces from 40 ounces last December, highlighting gold’s continued role as a benchmark asset.
The rally is underpinned by declining government bond yields across major Western economies, reflecting high debt, persistent inflation, and slowing growth—factors that reinforce gold’s safe-haven appeal.
From a technical perspective, the BTC-XAU ratio has been consolidating within a long-term ascending triangle pattern dating to 2017. With a modest 25% correction from late-2024 highs—shallower than previous 75–84% drawdowns—the structure points to a potential breakout in late Q4 2025 or early 2026, signaling a decisive move for bitcoin relative to gold.
