Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff Admits Underestimating Bitcoin’s Role in Underground Economy
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard professor and former IMF chief economist, has acknowledged that he underestimated bitcoin’s resilience, largely driven by its use within the global underground economy.
Back in 2018, Rogoff predicted that bitcoin (BTC) was more likely to crash to $100 than reach $100,000 over the next decade. At the time, bitcoin traded under $10,000.
Defying expectations, bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 mark earlier this year, achieving a tenfold increase since Rogoff’s prediction.
With bitcoin trading near $113,000 this week, Rogoff reflected on his previous forecast, admitting he had been “far too optimistic” about the U.S. regulatory environment clamping down on cryptocurrencies.
In a post on X, Rogoff criticized regulators for their lax approach, which allowed cryptocurrencies like bitcoin to thrive despite concerns around tax evasion and illegal activities.
He also admitted that he underestimated bitcoin’s competition with fiat currencies in the $20 trillion underground economy, which creates steady demand that supports a price floor — a topic he explores in his recent book, Our Dollar, Your Problem.
Additionally, Rogoff highlighted a “blatant conflict of interest,” pointing out that some regulators hold significant cryptocurrency assets themselves, potentially worth hundreds of millions or more, without apparent consequences.
