Benchmark Says Semler Scientific Offers Triple Upside as Market Overlooks Bitcoin Strategy
Semler Scientific (NASDAQ: SMLR) continues to trade just above the value of its bitcoin holdings, with a market net asset value (mNAV) of 1.04 — a sign, according to Benchmark, that the market is failing to account for the company’s long-term growth potential.
Following Semler’s second-quarter earnings, Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer reiterated his Buy rating and $101 price target, nearly three times higher than the current stock price of around $35. He believes investors are significantly undervaluing Semler’s capacity to expand its bitcoin position using prudent capital strategies.
“Investors are giving virtually no credit for the company’s ample room to use intelligent leverage to increase its BTC exposure,” Palmer wrote.
Unlike other bitcoin treasury firms that rely on heavy equity issuance, Semler is opting for a conservative and shareholder-friendly approach. Joe Burnett, the firm’s recently appointed Director of Bitcoin Strategy, laid out a long-term plan focused on using operating cash flow, low-cost convertible debt, and limited ATM equity offerings to scale its bitcoin holdings while avoiding shareholder dilution.
As of July 31, Semler owned 5,021 BTC acquired at a cost basis of $475.8 million, now worth approximately $586.2 million — a 31.3% year-to-date yield and $110.4 million in unrealized gains.
The company holds $100 million in 4.25% convertible notes due 2030 and has additional headroom for long-duration, BTC-backed debt — offering more flexibility to amplify returns over time.
Semler’s long-term targets are ambitious: 10,000 BTC by end-2025, 42,000 BTC by 2026, and 105,000 BTC by 2027, which would place the company among the most significant corporate holders of bitcoin globally.
Benchmark’s $101 valuation is derived from a sum-of-the-parts analysis, incorporating the projected value of Semler’s bitcoin treasury and its healthcare business, including the growth-stage CardioVanta unit.
Despite this, shares continue to trade near NAV, reflecting little to no premium for strategic optionality or future BTC accumulation. Benchmark believes that disconnect will narrow as the company continues to execute on its capital strategy.
