Historically, it has taken Bitcoin between 20 to 30 attempts to break through significant round-number price levels. This phenomenon is largely driven by human psychology, especially in the crypto market. Round numbers often take on a symbolic significance, with investors more likely to panic-sell when price gains stall near these levels.
At the same time, some traders aim to capitalize on these psychological barriers by preemptively positioning themselves, creating a situation where the barrier becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is once again hitting the so-called psychological $100,000 sell wall. While previous analysis has pointed to factors like profit-taking, capitulation from short-term holders, and insufficient demand to push the price higher, it’s worth examining whether there’s a repeating pattern.
Using data from Glassnode, an analysis of Bitcoin’s price history shows that it typically takes several attempts to breach these psychological barriers. The analysis focused on when Bitcoin came within 2% of a multiple of $10,000.
Bitcoin first closed above $10,000 in December 2017, but after the market bubble burst, the cryptocurrency faced a bear market, struggling to reclaim the $10,000 level. It closed within 2% of the $10,000 mark 21 times before it finally broke through. This was one of the longest stretches of Bitcoin trading within a specific price range.
The same pattern held true for subsequent $10,000 price increments, with Bitcoin closing within 2% of each barrier between 15 and 30 times before successfully surpassing them. This trend continued all the way up to $70,000.
However, the pattern began to shift after Donald Trump’s election victory in November. Bitcoin surged through $80,000 and tested $90,000 only three times before breaking through.
This leaves the $100,000 level in uncharted territory. Bitcoin has already closed within 2% of the $100,000 barrier twice—on November 21 and 22. The question now is whether Bitcoin will follow the historical pattern, requiring 20 attempts to break through, or if the third time will indeed be the charm.
