Bitcoin’s supply on exchanges has dropped to a six-year low, signaling strong holder confidence as the cryptocurrency stabilizes near $94,000.
ARK Invest has updated its long-term outlook for Bitcoin, raising its 2030 price target to as high as $2.4 million per coin. The revision comes after the firm adjusted its assumptions regarding Bitcoin’s active supply, discounting coins that are lost or held long-term. Currently, Bitcoin is trading close to $94,000.
The bullish scenario now reflects a 60% increase over ARK’s previous forecast from January 2024. It implies a 72% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from December 2024 through the end of 2030. ARK’s base case envisions Bitcoin reaching $1.2 million, corresponding to a 53% CAGR, while the bearish scenario predicts a price of $500,000, representing a 32% CAGR.
David Puell, an analyst at the Cathie Wood-led investment firm, crafted the updated projections using a model that factors in Bitcoin’s total addressable market and potential market share across multiple sectors. These include institutional investment, Bitcoin as “digital gold,” its function as a safe haven asset in emerging economies, adoption by nation-states and corporate treasuries, and on-chain financial services powered by the Bitcoin network.
Previously, in November 2024, Puell had forecast Bitcoin to end the year between $104,000 and $124,000. Bitcoin closed December at $93,440 before setting a new record high of $109,000 in January 2025, followed by a pullback to lows near $74,500 earlier this month.
Bitcoin’s recent rebound has been underpinned by the continued decline in exchange balances. According to data from Glassnode, the amount of BTC held on exchanges fell from roughly 3 million in November 2024 to 2.6 million today. This trend suggests more coins are moving into private wallets — a classic indicator of investor accumulation and long-term holding behavior — fueling renewed bullish sentiment in the market.
