Bitcoin’s On-Chain Data Signals Stress for Short-Term Holders as Long-Term Investors Accumulate
Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics are showing significant signs of market stress, as the short-term holder (STH) MVRV ratio has dropped to 0.82, a level historically associated with investor capitulation, according to Glassnode data.
The STH MVRV ratio measures the difference between Bitcoin’s market value (current price) and the realized value (the average cost at which short-term holders purchased their coins). A reading below 1.0 indicates that short-term holders are, on average, sitting on unrealized losses. At 0.82, this suggests short-term holders are down about 18%, signaling that many are likely feeling the strain of these losses.
This decline mirrors previous MVRV lows, such as 0.84 in August 2024 and 0.77 in November 2022, both of which were followed by market bottoms and reversals in trend.
Historically, deep MVRV pullbacks like this often mark periods where weaker hands capitulate, and savvy investors begin to accumulate. According to Glassnode, since February, long-term holders—those holding Bitcoin for 155 days or more—have increased their holdings by approximately 500,000 BTC.
In contrast, short-term holders have offloaded over 300,000 BTC, driven by a combination of profit-taking and capitulation. This shift in supply dynamics points to a clear trend: long-term holders are buying more BTC than short-term holders are selling, suggesting that strong hands are gaining dominance in the market.
