Bitcoin Futures Gap Lower as Trump Dismisses China Trade Deal, Market Braces for Impact
U.S. President Donald Trump sparked renewed market jitters over the weekend, saying the country may need to “take medicine” amid an escalating global sell-off. His latest comments — particularly a firm rejection of any near-term trade deal with China — coincided with a sharp gap down in Bitcoin’s CME futures, reflecting mounting bearish sentiment among institutional investors.
CME’s April-expiring Bitcoin futures opened Monday at $79,590, plunging 5.6% from Friday’s $84,250 close. The contract quickly dropped further, hitting lows near $76,800, according to CoinDesk data.
The move came alongside a steep 900-point drop in Dow futures, widespread sell-offs in Chinese stocks, and circuit-breaker-triggering declines in Japan. Top Wall Street firms, including JPMorgan, S&P Global, and Goldman Sachs, raised their odds of a U.S. recession following the week’s geopolitical shocks.
Speaking aboard Air Force One on Sunday, Trump made it clear he isn’t backing down. “I want to solve the trade deficit with China,” he said. “And unless we solve that problem, I’m not going to make a deal.” The President framed the ongoing market turmoil as a necessary correction: “I don’t want anything to go down, but sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something.”
Just days earlier, Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs on 180 countries, increasing levies on Chinese imports to 54%. Global markets have been reeling ever since.
Institutional Positioning Weakens on CME
Open interest on CME’s Bitcoin futures — a common proxy for institutional involvement — has been on a steep decline. From a December peak of 281.57K BTC, it’s now fallen to 140.5K, the lowest since August 2024, per Coinglass.
That suggests capital is flowing out of CME’s regulated crypto products, possibly in anticipation of deeper losses.
Interestingly, open interest on global futures and perpetuals (excluding CME) has climbed in the past month, rising from around 400K BTC to 520K BTC. This divergence indicates that while institutional players may be retreating, broader market participants are increasingly betting on downside — with growing short positions reinforcing the current bearish trend.
