Bitcoin Holds Steady as Strong U.S. Jobs Report Adds to Fed Rate Cut Debate
Bitcoin showed subtle signs of stability Friday as global markets continued to reel from escalating trade tensions triggered by sweeping tariffs.
The U.S. labor market posted another strong month in March, adding 228,000 jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics — a significant beat over the 135,000 gain economists had forecast. February’s figure was also revised downward to 117,000 from the previously reported 151,000.
Despite the robust hiring numbers, the unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.2%, just above the expected 4.1%.
In the immediate aftermath of the report, bitcoin (BTC) held firm, trading little changed at $82,600. While equity markets continued to falter, BTC’s relative steadiness may hint at a shifting dynamic in how investors view the asset.
Markets remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s next move. As of Friday morning, the CME FedWatch Tool indicated traders are pricing in four interest rate cuts for 2025, bringing the projected federal funds target range down to 3.25%–3.50%. The Fed is still widely expected to hold rates at its May meeting, but odds for a June cut have climbed to 60%.
This comes just two days after President Trump announced a sweeping increase in tariffs, shaking markets across the globe. The Nasdaq plummeted 6% on Thursday, with the S&P 500 close behind at a 5% loss — their worst single-day performances in years. Hopes for a Friday recovery quickly faded after China announced retaliatory tariffs, with futures for both indices pointing to another 3% drop at the open.
Flight to Safety: Is Bitcoin Joining the Club?
Traditional safe-haven assets responded predictably. Gold, though slightly off recent highs, remains near its all-time peak of $3,200 per ounce. U.S. Treasury yields continued their slide, with the 10-year falling to 3.89% — nearly a full percentage point lower than where it stood at Trump’s inauguration.
Bitcoin’s recent performance, however, is drawing renewed attention. While it has largely mirrored the Nasdaq’s movements over the past few weeks, Thursday saw BTC hold its ground above $80,000 even as tech stocks crumbled. That modest show of resilience has some analysts wondering if bitcoin might be in the early stages of decoupling from broader risk assets.
Looking ahead, all eyes turn to next week’s March CPI report. Inflation is expected to remain sticky, with both headline and core CPI hovering near 3% — data that will likely add more fuel to the ongoing debate over Fed policy direction.
