Bitcoin news: BTC closed below its 200-day EMA ahead of the October US jobs report, putting its recovery prospects under pressure. Historical data shows Bitcoin gained after 52 of 104 employment releases but recorded losses following the last three.
Bitcoin is approaching Friday’s October employment report, scheduled for November 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET, after ending Thursday’s session at $76,088. The latest decline pushed BTC below its 200-day moving average for the first time since August 19, marking a notable change in its technical outlook.
Bitcoin’s historical reaction to US jobs data has been evenly split. However, the cryptocurrency’s performance following recent releases has become increasingly bearish.
A Coinspeaker analysis of 104 employment reports dating back to January 2018 found that Bitcoin traded higher 24 hours after exactly 52 releases. Its weekly performance has been less encouraging, with BTC declining after each of the last three reports. The losses stood at 3.3% in August, 5.2% in September and 3.7% in October.
The cryptocurrency is also facing pressure from weakness in traditional financial markets. BTC is trading around $76,160, down 5.1% over the past 24 hours. Thursday’s technology stock rout accelerated selling, sending Bitcoin from $80,918 to $75,208, its lowest level since September 16. Market sentiment deteriorated sharply as well, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropping from 50 to 28 in just 24 hours.
The upcoming employment figures could have further implications for cryptocurrency markets by influencing Federal Reserve policy expectations. According to Polymarket, traders currently assign a 69% probability to a rate increase on December 9, compared with 80% a day earlier.
With Bitcoin already trading below a major technical indicator, investors are watching whether the jobs report could trigger another wave of selling or help BTC regain its lost ground.
Bitcoin’s Performance After Previous US Jobs Reports
Bitcoin has not demonstrated a reliable immediate reaction to employment announcements. Historical results show that price movements during the first 24 hours are relatively balanced, while the seven-day performance offers a slightly stronger indication.
The analysis measured BTC price changes using Binance hourly candles around the 8:30 a.m. ET release time. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ official archive was used to identify the publication dates. The October 2025 report was excluded because it was not published during the US government shutdown.
The results were as follows:
- First hour: Bitcoin moved higher following 58 of 104 releases, with an average movement of 0.66% in either direction.
- After 24 hours: BTC recorded gains after 52 reports, with a median return of 0.07% and an average price movement of 1.92% in either direction.
- After seven days: Bitcoin finished higher following 57 releases, recording a median gain of 0.67%.
The 2026 results show a particularly interesting shift in market behavior. Bitcoin advanced during the week following each of the year’s first seven employment reports, with gains ranging from 0.5% to 7.6%.
That positive trend ended in August. BTC subsequently posted weekly losses after all three employment reports released since then.
Nevertheless, weekly price movements cannot be attributed entirely to employment data. Other economic announcements, institutional transactions and broader financial market developments can influence Bitcoin throughout the seven-day period.
The largest 24-hour decline in the historical dataset followed the December 2021 employment report. BTC dropped 17.1% during that period as leveraged positions faced a major weekend liquidation event.
Why the October Jobs Report Matters for Federal Reserve Policy
The latest employment figures arrive as investors assess the possibility of another Federal Reserve rate increase in December.
On October 28, the central bank voted 10–2 to maintain its benchmark interest rate between 3.75% and 4.00%. Both dissenting policymakers supported raising rates by 25 basis points instead.
Thursday’s market downturn subsequently changed expectations for the next policy meeting. Kalshi data showed the probability of a December rate hike declining by 10 percentage points in a single day. At the same time, the likelihood of an unchanged interest rate increased from 22% to 32%.
A stronger employment report could revive expectations for another rate increase, potentially creating additional headwinds for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
In contrast, weaker labor market conditions could give the Fed more flexibility to delay further tightening. This could ease concerns about monetary policy and improve sentiment across cryptocurrency markets.
BTC Price Analysis: Key Levels That Could Determine the Next Move
Bitcoin’s technical structure remains vulnerable after its latest breakdown below the 200-day exponential moving average.
The 200-day EMA currently stands near $76,540, approximately $380 above BTC’s current trading level. The indicator had previously acted as a reliable technical benchmark, with Bitcoin maintaining daily closes above it since the August breakout.
For a meaningful recovery, buyers will first need to push BTC above this average and establish support at higher levels.
Important resistance levels:
- $76,540: The 200-day EMA, serving as the immediate resistance barrier.
- $79,839: The 50-day EMA, representing the next recovery target.
- $81,196: Wednesday’s high, which could become the next upside objective.
Important support levels:
- $75,208: Thursday’s low and the first level buyers need to defend.
- $74,968: The September 15 low, providing another potential support area.
- $72,598: The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which could come into focus if selling accelerates.
Historically, Bitcoin’s immediate reaction to employment reports has been inconsistent, making it difficult to predict the next move based solely on the jobs figures.
For now, the more important technical signal is whether BTC can recover above its 200-day EMA before the weekly close. A successful reclaim could indicate that buyers are returning, while continued weakness below this level may expose Bitcoin to another round of selling pressure.
